Powell’s speech marks a significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework from prioritizing anti inflation to preventing employment risks. Although the probability of a rate cut in September is extremely high, two risks need to be cautious: if inflation rebounds beyond expectations due to tariffs, the timing of the rate cut may be postponed; Deepening political intervention (such as Cook’s resignation) may permanently damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve and impact the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency. Investors should pay attention to key data for August and prioritize investing in interest rate sensitive assets (technology stocks/gold), while retaining hedging strategies to deal with expected disappointment.
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