The Bitcoin cycle has broken! Will it reach 200000 in December?
Bitcoin (BTC) is soaring.
Set a historic high of $122000 a few days ago:
If you are still asking yourself, ‘At which stage of the Bitcoin cycle are we in?’, I have news to tell you:
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has been disrupted
Since the birth of Bitcoin, it has followed a reliable four-year rhythm.
This pre programmed event – automatically halving the new supply of Bitcoin (hence referred to as’ halving ‘) – triggers a predictable upward cycle every time it occurs.
Cryptocurrency prices typically hit bottom 12-18 months before Bitcoin halving. Then it started to rise before the halving… and rose even more rapidly in the 12 months after the halving.
After the first halving, Bitcoin surged by 8000%… After the second halving, it increased nearly 30 times within a year… After the third halving, it brought a 6-fold return.
But this time, the situation has changed.
The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024. However, the price of Bitcoin has only risen by 90% since then.
According to past patterns, we should now be in a period of comprehensive cryptocurrency frenzy. But the fact is not so.
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According to the script of a four-year cycle, capital flow should also begin to flow into smaller tokens. I am referring to the so-called ‘counterfeit coin season’. However, Bitcoin still firmly holds a dominant position.
Obviously, the cycle of Bitcoin has been disrupted.
ETF breaks four-year cycle
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF – iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) – has rewritten historical records.
In just 11 months, it accumulated over $50 billion in assets, surpassing the issuance speed of any ETF in history. IBIT currently holds more assets than BlackRock’s gold ETF, which is the world’s second-largest gold fund.
Why is this important?
This means that large institutions have already entered the cryptocurrency market.
Wall Street, pension funds, banks, and even 401 (k) accounts can now gain Bitcoin exposure with just one click.
This will transform Bitcoin from a niche asset to a global macro asset. Whether you like it or not, cryptocurrency has become a part of the traditional financial system.
Previously, Bitcoin operated at its own pace, following the pattern of a four-year halving cycle.
Now, it is fluctuating in sync with the big market… responding to inflation data, interest rates, tariffs, and central bank decisions.
Take a look at how closely the Bitcoin price has been aligned with the S&P 500 index this year: ETFs have brought billions of dollars in new investor funds to the cryptocurrency market.
Washington’s 180 degree turn towards cryptocurrency will bring trillions of dollars in funding
Please remember, just nine months ago, the US government publicly opposed cryptocurrency.
Senators have formed an anti cryptocurrency ‘army’. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed lawsuits against every active cryptocurrency project.
Members who have been following Venture for a long time know that regulatory uncertainty is the number one factor hindering the development of cryptocurrency. For three consecutive years, Bitwise’s survey of professional investors has shown that regulatory issues have always been their primary reason for avoiding cryptocurrencies: in just a few months, the situation has undergone significant changes.
Congress has declared this week as’ Cryptocurrency Week ‘.
The US House of Representatives hopes to push through three major cryptocurrency bills that have been deadlocked for years.
This is the most serious and coordinated cryptocurrency policy push to date.
In short, these bills will give the green light for large institutions on Wall Street to enter the cryptocurrency market. This means that more funds will begin to flow into cryptocurrencies.
How high can Bitcoin rise?
In August 2023, when the price of Bitcoin was $27000, I told members of RiskEdge Venture that Bitcoin would reach $150000. Since then, the price of Bitcoin has more than quadrupled: based on all positive regulatory developments, Bitcoin may reach $200000 in the next 12 months.
Breaking the four-year cycle is a good thing.
This means that cryptocurrencies will no longer be limited by a fixed schedule.
In the future, the cryptocurrency bull market may last for several years, just like the stock market.
The -80% plunge that occurs every four years is likely to be a thing of the past.
Bitcoin is just digital cash, owning some Bitcoin is wise. But if you pursue rapid growth, it is not the best cryptocurrency.
The real upside potential lies in smaller, lesser known cryptocurrency projects.Please tip me with USDT and other digital currencies. Thank you! Tipping brings good fortune and blessings. I wish you a happy and joyful day! My USDT and other digital currency receiving address is: 0xb01e8aa1b334a49b224e4ba9f84eec1e58bd5087