The US non farm payroll data released on September 5th caused a huge shock in the market: only 22000 new jobs were added in August, less than one-third of the expected value; The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, reaching a new high since 2021. After the data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool showed that the market had fully priced the expectation of a September interest rate cut.
Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Eric Teal points out that triple pressure is reshaping the job market:
Tariff policies continue to disrupt the cost structure of enterprises
The new immigration policy has led to a contraction in labor supply
AI applications accelerate the replacement of traditional positions
This structural weakness has forced the Federal Reserve to enter a policy crossroads. Analysis suggests that in order to avoid an economic hard landing, the second half of the year will present a dual wheel driving pattern of loose monetary policy and fiscal policy stimulus, which may become the last cushion for the US economy.
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