Has the narrative of technology disappeared? It doesn’t exist. Innovations that truly have technological barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, ZK technology, AI infras, etc., require 2-3 years or even longer build times to see actual results. This type of project follows the Gartner Hype Cycle, rather than the emotional cycle of the capital market – there is a fundamental time mismatch between the two.
The reason why technical narratives are criticized by the market is entirely due to overestimating their value when the project is still in the conceptual stage, and then underestimating their value in the “death valley” stage when the technology truly begins to land. This determines that the value release of technology projects exhibits a non-linear leap forward characteristic.
For investors with patience and technical judgment, laying out truly valuable technology projects during the ‘Death Valley’ phase may be the best strategy to achieve excess returns. But the premise is that you have to be able to endure long waiting periods and market pains, as well as potential ridicule.
——Short cycle of innovation hotspots: 1-3 months window period, brewing the main rise wave and big narrative
Before the formation of the main technical narrative, various small narratives rapidly rotate, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), and each small hotspot may only have a window period of 1-3 months.
This narrative fragmentation and high-frequency rotation reflect the dual constraints of scarce attention and rent-seeking efficiency in the current market.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that a typical small narrative cycle follows a six stage model: “concept validation → fund exploration → public opinion amplification → FOMO entry → valuation overdraft → fund withdrawal”. Do you want to profit from this model?
The key is to enter the “concept validation” to “funding exploration” stage and exit during the peak of “FOMO entry”.
The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero sum game of attention resources. But there is a technical correlation and conceptual progression between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) protocol and A2A (Agent to Agent) interaction standard in AI Infra are actually technical underlying reconstructions of AI Agent storytelling. If the subsequent narrative can continue the previous hot topic, form a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly precipitate a sustainable value loop in the linkage process. It is highly likely that a super narrative with a main wave level similar to DeFi Summer will emerge.
From the current narrative perspective, the AI infrastructure level is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the underlying technologies such as MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to build a super narrative similar to “AI Summer”.
The above.
In general, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is necessary to find suitable strategies in their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, a single “four-year cycle” thinking is no longer able to keep up with the complexity of the current market.
Adapting to the new normal of “multiple gameplay cycles in parallel” may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.
Registration invitation code for high rebate fees on digital currency exchanges
Friends who speculate in cryptocurrency do not yet know that the accumulated transaction fees are very high, and they do not even care about this amount of fee. Little do they know that frequent transaction fees are also a large expense: they may even exceed your principal.
Open the relevant cryptocurrency trading app to check the transaction fees, and you can see your transaction fees for the past year,
For brothers with high-frequency trading and large positions, it may only take one month for your transaction fees to exceed the principal.
So it is necessary to apply for rebates, and the handling fees should be taken back. If you don’t apply for rebates, everything will go to the market. If you apply for rebates, the handling fees will be returned to your own account, saving you at least hundreds or thousands of U in handling fees per month.
The system will automatically return it to you
If you can save money on flowers, you can share the commission rebate invitation code below with your friends.
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According to the highest proportion, the handling fee will be refunded, and the invitation code will be permanently valid. The time for refunding the handling fee will be permanently valid.